Emilio Ichikawa blog

Elections in 2013: the opposition’s dynamics

A CubaNews translation. Edited by Walter Lippmann.

Two decades of general elections [for the National Assembly] yield opposition figures (as compared with the electoral roll) revealing of Castro’s tyranny over numbers:

February 24, 1993: 34,000 registered voters failed to vote and 552,000 spoiled their ballots or left them unmarked (7.4% opposition).

January 11, 1998: 133,000 registered voters failed to vote and 398,000 spoiled their ballots or left them unmarked (6.7% opposition).

January 19, 2003: 197,000 registered voters failed to vote and 313,000 spoiled their ballots or left them unmarked (6.1% opposition).

January 20, 2008: 264,000 registered voters failed to vote and 392,000 spoiled their ballots or left them unmarked (7.7% opposition).

February 3, 2013: According to the preliminary report of the National Electoral Commission, out of 8,631,836 registered voters, 754,000 failed to vote and 444,000 spoiled their ballots or left them unmarked (13.9% opposition).

From Albert Otto Hirschman’s perspective on dissidence: Exit, Voice, and Loyalty (Harvard University Press, 1970), the prolonged migration process (exit of the sociopolitical context: an average of 30,000 émigrés per year between 1993 and 2010, id est: a Mariel every four years) and the dynamics of the election (an increase of 6.2% in the opposition’s voice –especially through abstentionism– against a frame of mind for loyalty) indicate that, barring a major change of the circumstances, the historical phenomenon called Cuban Nation would take half a century to bring about an anti-Castro majority.

Except that the circumstances won’t change as long as we keep falling into the categorical error of mistaking the minorities who fight for their human rights –the horizontal plane of democracy– for the minorities who fight for power –the vertical plane– and therefore treating as leaders of the opposition those with very little appeal inside who concentrate their efforts on gaining recognition outside instead.

Unable for two decades to either cash in on the anti-Castro vote or win people over to their side, the opposition keeps being guided by the survival instinct of those who no longer know how to fade away. They seem to have reached the stalemate of the “stunned pluralism” that Samuel Hutchison Beer warned us about in Britain against Itself (Norton, 1982): if many factions with different interests compete for a fictitious leadership and tangible resources, politics will deadlock and they will meet neither the national nor the group interests.

This situation has ended up in parapraxis: they are not aware of their political mistakes and their causes any more, not even of their very political intentions, as they grow ever more reluctant to acknowledge their own crisis. And far from using people’s anxiety and frustration as energy for psychosocial therapy, they channel them into useless gratification, constructing anything from fake heroes and martyrs to all sorts of trivial criticism and action, not to mention false historical roles.

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CUBA: In the last decade (2003-2013) Cubans have tended to vote less and to cast more blank or spoiled ballots

In the last decades, Cubans on the island have tended to not go to the polls, to return blank ballot papers or to just spoil them in general elections, whereas the electoral roll shows a steady but slow growth. Even if the following are preliminary results of the latest election, this tendency is already noticeable.

ELECTORAL ROLL

VALID BALLOTS

Notice that even if the electorate grew by 318,000 voters, the number of valid votes increased in only 74,000.

BLANK BALLOTS

Meanwhile, there have been 121,000 more votes declared null and void for being blank.

SPOILED BALLOTS

The number of spoiled ballots has increased very little: only 25,000 more.

TURNOUT AT THE POLLS

The most drastic decline: for the first time, less than 90% of the electorate cast their vote (arguments of bad weather are to be expected).

ABSTENTIONS

The most spectacular increase: the number of voters who failed to show up was almost triple what it was in past elections. In this decade, those who have abstained (577,000) outnumber by far the electorate itself (318,000).

CUBAN TEA PARTY

For the first time, more than one million voters have somehow expressed their opposition, either by not voting or spoiling their ballot. However, the marked contrast between abstentionism and other expressions of opposition arouses suspicions that indifference prevails within the Cuban tea party, and such apathy is always fruitful for political stability.


 

Emilio Ichikawa blog
 

Elecciones 2013: dinámica opositora

Dos décadas de elecciones generales [diputados a la Asamblea Nacional] arrojan porcentajes de oposición (con respecto a electores registrados) que acreditan la tiranía castrista de los números:

• 24 de febrero de 1993: No votaron 34 mil electores registrados y 552 mil votantes anularon o dejaron en blanco sus boletas (7.4% de oposición).
  
  11 de enero de 1998: No votaron 133 mil electores registrados y 398 mil votantes anularon o dejaron en blanco sus boletas (6.7% de oposición).
  
  19 de enero de 2003: No votaron 197 mil electores registrados y 313 mil votantes anularon o dejaron en blanco sus boletas (6.1% de oposición).
  
  20 de enero de 2008: No votaron 264 mil electores registrados y 392 mil votantes anularon o dejaron en blanco sus boletas (7.7% de oposición).
  
  3 de febrero de 2013: Según el parte preliminar de la Comisión Electoral Nacional, de 8 631 836 electores registrados, 754 mil no fueron a votar y 444 mil anularon o dejaron en blanco sus boletas (13.9 % de oposición).

Desde la perspectiva de Albert Otto Hirschman sobre la disidencia: Exit, Voice, and Loyalty (Harvard University Press, 1970), la pertinaz dinámica migratoria (exit del contexto sociopolítico: más de 30 mil emigrantes anuales como promedio entre 1993 y 2010, id est: un Mariel cada cuatro años) y la dinámica electoral (6.2% de incremento en voice opositora —sobre todo en la abstención— contra tesitura de loyalty) indican que —sin cambio esencial de circunstancias— ese fenómeno histórico denominado nación cubana tardaría medio siglo en lograr mayoría anticastrista.

Y las circunstancias no cambiarán mientras se prosiga incurriendo en el error categorial de confundir minorías que luchan por sus derechos humanos —plano horizontal de la democracia— con minorías que luchan por el poder —plano vertical— y manejar así como líderes opositores a quienes no tienen masas dentro, sino que se concentran en ganar reconocimiento fuera.

La oposición viene guiándose por el instinto de supervivencia de quienes ya no saben cómo desaparecer, luego de pasar dos décadas sin capitalizar los votos contra el castrismo ni gozar de ningún otro favor popular. Al parecer llegó al punto muerto del «pluralismo impactado» que advirtió Samuel Hutchison Beer en Britain against Itself (Norton, 1982): si muchos grupúsculos con intereses variados compiten por un liderazgo ficticio y recursos tangibles, la política se estanca y no se realizan ni el interés nacional ni los intereses grupales.

Esta situación ha desembocado en parapraxis: ya se perdió conciencia de los errores políticos y de sus causas e incluso de las intenciones políticas mismas, a la vez que aumenta la reticencia a reconocer la crisis opositora. Y lejos de emplearse como energías para terapia psicosocial, la ansiedad y la frustración se encauzan hacia gratificaciones inútiles: desde falsos héroes y mártires, pasando por falsas trascendencias históricas, hasta las más diversas críticas y acciones fútiles.

CUBA: En la última década (2003-2013) los cubanos muestran la tendencia a votar menos y anular o dejar en blanco más boletas